DALLAS — The Texas Rangers have a diverse list of various questions to answer as the 2022-2023 offseason gets underway in earnest this week. They answered the most pertinent one while the playoffs were still going by hiring three-time World Series Champion manager Bruce Bochy after the dismissal of Chris Woodward in the middle of the season.
Texas may fill another executive position soon, as rumors have started circulating surrounding former Kansas City Royals’ general manager Dayton Moore having conversations with Chris Young. A marriage there could provide first-time GM Young with an experienced voice to act as a sounding board.
However, neither of those matters address the on-field product. When talking about the actual baseball team going forward for the Rangers, the question of pitching must be at the forefront.
For an ownership group that built a brand new stadium to help attract free agent pitching by making the dimensions far less hitter friendly, the 2022 Rangers finished the season with the 8th highest runs allowed per game, the 9th highest team earned run average, the 7th highest WHIP, and the 4th highest walks per nine innings in the entire league.
Even while anchored by a fairly surprising complete and good season from Martin Perez (32 starts, 12-8, 2.89 ERA, 196.1 innings pitched) and decent performances from free agent signee Jon Gray when he was healthy, the overall rotation formed by Texas wasn’t exactly anything that put fear into the hearts of opposing lineups.
Where Texas opened their wallets last year for big hitters Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, they are expected to do the same this year for free agent starting pitching. This year’s free agent class boasts some very good names, but one of the bigger targets that the Rangers are expected to go after is the annual pursuit of Highland Park native Clayton Kershaw.
Here’s the perhaps $20-25 million question: Should they?
Kershaw – a three-time Cy Young winner – is not the most feared pitcher on the planet anymore, mostly due to recurring health issues in recent years. In 2022, the 34-year old lefty was plagued with back and hip injuries, hitting the IL twice early in the year as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. He ended 2021 on the IL with elbow and forearm issues. Even in the pandemic–shortened 2020 season, Kershaw was on the IL twice with back problems.
This brings to light the biggest drawback that Texas would face in bringing Kershaw home – reliability. Already seeing the issues of recurring injuries with Gray in the rotation, would Texas want to have to deal with two injury-plagued starters?
The Rangers’ farm system features some prospects on the cusp – Cole Ragans, Owen White, Cole Winn and several others (without believing that top draft picks Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter will be ready to contribute at the big league level next season) – but the rest of the talent pool showed themselves to not be ready, thus exposing the lack of starting pitching depth.
Kershaw’s likely going to command a hefty price tag, so should Texas sink that much money into what could effectively be a half-season pitcher?
Here’s the other side of that coin – when Kershaw was making starts, he was still incredibly good. When you put him in comparison with the 2022 Texas Rangers staff, he was exceptional. In 22 starts in 2022, Kershaw put up a 12-3 record with a 2.28 ERA in 126.1 innings pitched with nearly a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and almost 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
Kershaw wasn’t quite as good in 2021, but again, in comparison to what the Rangers were putting out there, he was miles better. The thing that Kershaw is, and what Texas really needs more of, is a command pitcher. Kershaw walked fewer than 5% of batters faced this season, and even though his fastball isn’t lighting up radar guns, he’s still a guy who misses bats.
If you pair Kershaw with a light contact pitcher like Perez – who Texas also needs to make a decision on and who is no guarantee to repeat his career year All-Star performance – that could be a pretty potent 1-2. However, even if they can finally lure Kershaw home and re-sign Perez, that might only be the beginning of what Texas needs.
What about that aforementioned price tag? The Dodgers paid Kershaw $17 million for 22 games. You can assume around the same number of games, if not fewer, with Kershaw getting older by another year. Put into play that Kershaw still has been an effective pitcher when healthy and you’re probably looking at around $20 million as a starting point to pry Kershaw away from being a career Dodger.
They say there’s no such thing as a one-year contract. When you look at the projected payroll of the 2023 Rangers – just over $117 million committed for the year, according to Spotrac – it would appear that Young and the Rangers’ front office has some money to play with.
Factoring in that, even if they were to land the future Hall of Famer Kershaw, Texas probably still needs another, far more reliable starting pitching arm, might pony up to re-sign Perez, still has needs for starting pitching depth throughout the rotation, and has to consider options for their bullpen and lineup, and eventually the math gets dicey.
When you take all of that into consideration, along with the likelihood of over-paying to outbid Los Angeles (and anyone else), could you commit potentially $25-30 million for ONE year of Clayton Kershaw? It’s a question that the Rangers ask themselves every offseason and is one that could make or break the 2023 season.
Do you think that this is the year that Clayton Kershaw finally comes home? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.
